The European election: the BNP threat
For several years the British National Party has done well despite itself. Bearing in mind the low quality of many of its local organisers and the poor performance of some of its elected councillors, it is amazing that the party has achieved the limited success it has. There is also a case for saying that the BNP should have done better. Given the wider political environment it could be argued that the BNP has underperformed, especially considering that in most of the areas where it initially broke through - Sandwell, Bradford, Kirklees and Oldham - the party hardly exists on the ground any more.
This coming year could be very different. We are only just beginning to feel the effects of the economic downturn. There is far more and worse to come. At the moment many people, particularly in social groups C2DE, which have provided the BNP with the bulk of its voting base, appear to be returning to Labour, probably in the hope that the Government can save them from the worst consequences of the economic decline. But as the recession goes on, and people lose their jobs and homes, so the anger will grow. Much of it will be directed at the Government but some will be directed at migrant workers and immigrants who will increasingly be blamed for taking jobs.
Politically the European election offers the chance for the BNP to break out of the fringes. A single MEP could deliver the BNP with as much as £250,000 a year in salaries, resources and office costs, and unlike the useless UK Independence Party, the BNP is likely to make this money work for the party.
The BNP only needs a slight improvement on its 2004 vote to get there. In the North West, where party leader Nick Griffin is standing, the BNP only needs to add 2% to its 2004 vote of 6.4% to be virtually guaranteed a seat. In Yorkshire and The Humber and the West Midlands the BNP needs only a slightly bigger increase to secure seats.
There are several other factors going in the BNP's favour. In 2004 the turnout was boosted by all-out council elections in most of the West Midlands and North on the same day. In four regions the elections were all-postal ballots. These factors helped boost voter turnout from a paltry 20.2% in 1999 to 42% in 2004.
In addition, the last European election was dominated by the political success of the UKIP. The anti-EU party won 16.2% of the national vote, gaining 12 MEPs. After a succession of high profile splits, embarrassing gaffes and little activity, the UKIP is now a shadow of its former self. The collapse of the UKIP has left huge numbers of anti-European votes up for grabs and as a result raises the BNP threat beyond its three key regions. The East Midlands, where the UKIP polled 26%, and the East of England (19%) suddenly come into play.
And then, of course, there is the economic downturn (see Is a recession good news for the BNP? Searchlight Magazine November 2008).
Of course, nothing can be taken for granted and there is still everything to play for. On several occasions in recent years we have been pleasantly surprised by the BNP's failure to make expected breakthroughs. This year might be no different. The bulk of the UKIP vote is likely to switch to the Conservatives, who are also likely to be able to turn out their own core vote more successfully than in 2004. Likewise, with a general election looming, an increased Labour effort might encourage its vote to come out, though the party underperforms in European elections.
What is certain though is that nothing can be left to chance. The honest truth is the European election generally motivates those who are really concerned about the European Union, and in Britain the bulk of those are totally opposed. Turnout will be far lower than in 2004, meaning every vote counts.
As a result, our most important job is to turn the voters out, and we need to use the BNP threat to do this.
Regions under threat
Searchlight has identified six regions of major concern - the North West, West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber, East of England, London and the East Midlands.
The BNP's main target will be the North West, where the party would need just 9% of the vote to be guaranteed a seat, though it could get one MEP elected with as little as 7.5%, depending on how the votes are distributed among other parties. Griffin has already announced that he will top the party list in this region. In 2004 the BNP polled 6.4% of the vote and did so with little campaigning outside its traditional East Lancashire and Greater Manchester heartlands. Since then the BNP has grown significantly in new areas, such as Cumbria and Merseyside, and is polling well in parts of Greater Manchester, including achieving votes in council elections of over 20% in Manchester itself.
The two other key regional targets will be the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber, where in last year's local elections the BNP averaged respectively 14.1% and 14.5% of the vote in the wards it contested [see table 1]. While the BNP is unlikely to obtain a similar vote across the two regions in the European election, the breadth of BNP support should be cause for concern. The BNP has grown in new areas of the West Midlands and averaged 24.6% of the vote in the 12 wards it contested in Nuneaton & Bedworth in last year's local elections, an authority where the party had never stood before other than in by-elections.
For the third local election running the BNP fielded a complete slate in Birmingham and polled 7.5% of the vote. If it can match or slightly increase this in a European election and pull in higher votes in its stronger areas, such as Stoke-on-Trent and the Black Country, then it can expect a substantial increase on the 7.5% it polled in 2004.| Table 1: 2004 election results and new seats | ||||||
| Region | BNP vote | UKIP vote | Combined vote | |||
| North East | 50,249 | 6.4% | 94,887 | 12.2% | 145,136 | 18.6% |
| North West | 134,959 | 6.4% | 257,158 | 12.2% | 392,117 | 18.6% |
| Yorkshire & Humber | 126,538 | 8.0% | 228,666 | 14.5% | 355,204 | 22.5% |
| East Midlands | 91,860 | 6.5% | 366,498 | 21.1% | 458,358 | 27.6% |
| West Midlands | 107,794 | 7.5% | 251,366 | 17.5% | 359,160 | 25.0% |
| East | 65,557 | 4.3% | 296,160 | 19.6% | 361,717 | 23.9% |
| London | 76,152 | 4.0% | 232,633 | 12.3% | 308,785 | 16.3% |
| South East | 64,877 | 2.9% | 431,111 | 19.5% | 495,988 | 22.4% |
| South West | 43,653 | 3.0% | 326,784 | 22.6% | 370,437 | 25.6% |
| Wales | 27,135 | 3.0% | 96,677 | 10.5% | 123,812 | 13.5% |
| Scotland | 19,427 | 1.7% | 78,828 | 6.7% | 98,255 | 8.4% |
| TOTAL | 3,468,969 | 21.1% | ||||
BNP support in some of its traditional West Yorkshire heartlands appears to have reached a plateau but it is still averaging between 15% and 20% across Bradford, Calderdale, Kirklees and Wakefield. In Leeds, where the BNP stood in every ward last May, it polled 11.1%. There has also been significant growth in BNP support in South Yorkshire. The BNP averaged 27.9% in the five wards it contested in Rotherham, 17.9% in 20 (out of 21) wards in Barnsley, 14.8% in the eight wards in Sheffield and 12.5% in three wards in Doncaster. However, this must be offset against a much lower BNP vote across North Yorkshire.
The biggest surprise might come in the East Midlands. On the face of it the BNP's 6.4% in 2004 is well short of the 13% needed to secure an MEP in 2009. However, this vote was in addition to the huge UKIP vote of 26% and obtained with no campaigning and little, if any, local organisation on the ground. Indeed, the BNP had hardly ever contested local elections in the region before the 2004 European election, in complete contrast to today. In the 2007 and 2008 local elections the BNP polled significantly better in the East Midlands than in other regions [see table 2] and organisationally it is arguably the party's most efficient region.
| Table 2: 2004-2009 seats per region | ||||
| Region | 2004 seats | 2009 seats |
Change in number of available seats | Approximate BNP vote (%) required to get one MEP |
| North East | 3 | 3 | 0 | 17.0% |
| North West | 9 | 8 | -1 | 8.5% |
| Yorkshire & Humber | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11.5% |
| East Midlands | 6 | 5 | -1 | 13.0% |
| West Midlands | 7 | 6 | -1 | 11.5% |
| East | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10.0% |
| London | 9 | 8 | -1 | 8.5% |
| South East | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7.5% |
| South West | 7 | 6 | -1 | 11.5% |
| Wales | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16.0% |
| Scotland | 7 | 6 | -1 | 11.5% |
While the bulk of the anti-Europe vote will go to the Conservative Party and to a lesser extent the UKIP, the BNP will go into the election claiming to be the only party combining a position of pulling out of the EU coupled with vocal opposition to migrant workers already here (as opposed to the UKIP whose agenda tends to be more focused on issues such as the EU constitution). This BNP line is likely to play particularly well in more traditional working class communities, where people feel more threatened economically by migrant workers.
The BNP can be defeated
Nothing is certain in politics and while the terrain is certainly getting tougher the BNP can be defeated. However for this to happen requires a massive campaign to mobilise everyone opposed to the politics of hate to turn out and vote. We have shown time and again that there is a huge anti-BNP vote out there and if it is organised and motivated then it will turn up at the polling stations and be decisive in an election.
And this is what the HOPE not hate campaign is all about - organising, informing and mobilising. We are currently building a massive campaign with groups and activists in every corner of the country and we would urge you to get involved.
Together we can beat the BNP.
Have you registered to vote? click here if not