2010 Assessment

Source: Searchlight Magazine April 2010

Key electoral battlegrounds in 2010

The British National Party may well be standing in 300-400 constituencies in the general election but in only a handful does the party present a threat. Nick Lowles looks at the key battlegrounds.

Barking and Dagenham

Constituencies:
Barking, Dagenham & Rainham

BNP councillors: 12

Target wards: 10 (all-out elections)

The east London borough of Barking and Dagenham is the BNP’s top national priority, where it hopes to take control of the council and with it a £200m a year budget. The BNP is already the official opposition and needs 26 councillors in these all-out elections to take control of its first council.

Nick Griffin, the BNP leader, is standing in Barking in the general election but even he admits that their goal is the council. Private polling shows that he is less popular locally than the BNP is as a party and while he will get a big vote he is unlikely to unseat Margaret Hodge, the Labour minister.

The battle for control of the council will be fought out in six “marginal” wards. They include two where the BNP has councillors and four wards where Labour holds all the seats. Whoever wins in these wards will become the largest party.

Jon Cruddas is less threatened by Michael Barnbrook, the BNP challenger, in his Dagenham & Rainham constituency, but in the 2008 London Assembly elections both the BNP and the Conservatives polled more votes than Labour. His position has been boosted since then by his successful campaign against a planned prison, which mobilised the support of 17,500 people in his constituency.

Stoke-on-Trent

Constituencies:
Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent Central and Stoke-on-Trent South

BNP councillors: 8

Target wards: 9

The BNP has a realistic chance of becoming the largest party on the council and even taking the Stoke-on-Trent Central parliamentary seat in an area that Griffin has described as the BNP’s “jewel in the crown”.

Stoke-on-Trent was once a strong Labour city. In the late 1990s the party held all 60 council seats, but today it is consumed by internal divisions and is inactive.

The likelihood of the BNP taking Stoke-on-Trent Central has receded slightly following the decision of Alby Walker, the BNP’s former council group leader, to leave the party and stand as an independent. The increasingly bitter war of words between Walker and the BNP is likely to damage the BNP’s electoral chances in Abbey Green, Walker’s ward, but not necessarily elsewhere in the city.

The BNP poses a slightly lesser threat in Stoke-on-Trent South where Michael Coleman is the party’s candidate, but an Asian Liberal Democrat candidate and a popular independent could both take votes from Labour and leave the seat more vulnerable.

On the council Walker and two BNP councillors are up for election. Walker looked secure until the BNP announced it would stand against him and Labour will be hoping to win back the other two BNP seats.

Amber Valley

Constituencies:
Amber Valley

BNP councillors: 2

Target wards: 4

The BNP made a breakthrough in this East Midlands constituency in 2008 by winning two council seats and missing out on a third by just one vote.

The BNP’s strength is in Heanor but it is looking to do well in neighbouring Alfreton.

Labour just beat off the BNP challenge in Heanor in last year’s county council elections so it will be hoping that a higher turnout and local campaigning will prevent the BNP from making further gains.

Morley and Outwood

Constituencies:
Morley & Outwood

BNP councillors: 1

Target wards: 2

A high-profile seat being defended by the Children, Schools and Families Minister Ed Balls, Morley and Outwood is the BNP’s top target in Yorkshire. This is a new constituency bringing together the southern part of Leeds and the northern part of Wakefield. In the 2008 local elections the BNP polled more votes than any other party, although it was helped by a strong Morley Independent vote.

The BNP candidate, Chris Beverley, is also likely to defend his Morley South council seat, though he might decide to jump ship and stand in the neighbouring Ardsley and Robin Hood ward, where the BNP needs a swing of less than 0.1% to win.

The BNP is likely to find its vote squeezed in the general election but Beverley appears to have a strong personal following in the south of Leeds.

Burnley

Constituencies:
Burnley

BNP councillors: 4

Target wards: 3

Once the BNP’s local government stronghold, the party is now down to four councillors from a peak of eight. Three of these four represent one ward. This is going to be a difficult election for Burnley BNP.

The BNP is unlikely to make any headway in the general election and is even likely to see a decline in its 2005 vote as the Lib Dems battle to take the seat from Labour.

However, it is the council elections on which the BNP will focus its energy. Two BNP councillors are facing election and they will be pleased to end the night retaining their seats. The BNP’s local election effort is likely to benefit from the popularity of its general election candidate, Sharon Wilkinson, in Hapton with Park, one of the wards where the BNP is defending a seat.

West Aberdeenshire

Constituencies:
West Aberdeenshire

BNP councillors: 0

Target wards: 0

The Scottish BNP organiser Gary Raikes will be fighting West Aberdeenshire. He is unlikely to make any but will hope to match the 4.9% he polled in the recent Glasgow North East by-election, the highest vote the BNP has ever achieved in Scotland.

County Durham

Constituencies:
Bishop Auckland, Sedgefield

BNP councillors: 0

Target wards: 0

With no local elections in County Durham this year the BNP will be focusing on the Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield constituencies. Covering a collection of former pit villages, the two seats have always voted Labour but in recent years the BNP has made inroads, particularly in Tudhoe, Chilton, Spennymoor and Ferryhill.

While the BNP has no chance of winning either parliamentary seat its candidates, Mark and Adam Walker, will be looking to solidify their support in preparation for future local elections.

Thurrock

Constituencies:
Thurrock, South Basildon & East Thurrock

BNP councillors: 1

Target wards: 3

In last summer’s European election the BNP polled 17.6% across the Thurrock local authority, only just behind Labour (18.3%), the UK Independence Party (21.7%) and the Conservatives (22.8%). While the general election result is unlikely to be as close the BNP will be expecting a good double-digit vote share.

It is on Thurrock council that the BNP presents the greater threat. Its general election candidate, Emma Colgate, is also the party’s only local councillor, yet she holds the balance of power on the council.

The BNP will be hoping to use the publicity generated by Griffin in nearby Barking to increase its strength in the Tilbury wards.

Swansea East

Constituencies:
Swansea East

BNP councillors: 0

Target wards: 0

The BNP is looking at this year’s General Elections as a platform for an assault on the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections. Its best prospects are in South Wales, particularly Swansea East, where the party polled over 9% in the European Elections last year. The BNP have been very active in this area, leafleting most weeks.