I just can't help myself

posted by: Nick Lowles | on: Saturday, 6 June 2009, 11:08

Earlier this morning I said that I was going to forget about work and enjoy a day at the Oval. I am indeed down in South London but the weather is causing a delay in the start. I just happened to bring along my notebook and a printout of the election results, so to occupy my time as I wait for Jon and for the weather to improve I thought I'd go through the results.

I must repeat that no-one knows the outcome of Sunday's count but a few trends are emerging.

1. As I mentioned yesterday, the BNP vote drops dramatically when UKIP or the English Democrats stand. This does not bode well for the BNP in the Euro vote.

2. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the BNP vote across East Lancashire, including their heartlands of Burnley and Pendle, will be down on 2004. The BNP polled 19.6% and 14.2% across the two local authorities in the County Council elections on Thursday. I predict that they will lose at least 25-30% of their vote to UKIP in the Euros. In 2004 the BNP averaged in the mid-to-late twenties in both areas in local elections and their vote dropped to 16.7% and 13.3% in the Euros. A drop in the vote this time would see the BNP get just 13% in Burnley and about 10% in Pendle – both well down on 2004.

Of course this will be offset by increases in BNP votes in other areas, but that said, a decline in its heartland must be a cause for concern for the BNP.

Another interesting result in the North West was the district council by-election in Rochdale. The BNP polled 16% which was in fact lower than their result last year. However, the BNP did not contest this ward in 2004 so it is impossible to make an accurate comparison.