Brexit crunch: new opinion polling briefing

We’re hitting the Brexit crunch point now. Theresa May is close to a deal with Brussels, but she’s losing ministers unhappy with the deal left right and centre. Out in the country, according to a new poll not yet published in detail, people are moving against a bad Brexit deal, and in favour of voters having the final say.

I am looking at some incredible numbers and I wanted to share them with supporters straight away. We worked on this poll of 8,000 people with Best for Britain, and it was carried out by Populus. We’re getting a constituency by constituency in the coming days, but the national numbers are really stark.

Here’s the big news: people have moved big time towards the idea that voters, not the politicians, should have the final say on a Brexit deal:

• 65% of voters support the British public having the final say
• More than half of Leave voters (52%) want the voters to have the final say
• 79% of Labour voters want the public to be given the final say on a deal

These numbers are massively up on when we last polled it in July 2018. Then, our polling suggested that only 38% thought there should be a referendum to accept or reject the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU once agreed.

It’s not just on how Britain decides on the final Brexit deal, people are shifting on the deal itself. When given the choice between leaving the EU with the government’s proposed deal or staying in, 48% of people would opt to stay in the EU, while 43% would opt for the Government’s deal. Here are some more numbers that stood out to me:

• Just 25% of Labour voters would choose to accept the Government’s deal over staying in the EU
• Just 25% of all voters think that the government’s deal is good when compared to staying in the EU and only 4% think it’s very good
• This includes a quarter of Leave voters (24%) who think the deal is bad when compared to staying in the EU
• Only 7% of conservative voters think the government’s deal would be very good compared to staying in the EU

The country has changed since the 2016 referendum. People feel like they know more about the issue, and they have seen the Government really stuff up the negotiations. Labour voters, in particular, don’t like what the Tories are trying to do with Brexit. 54% of people now say they would vote to remain in the EU if another referendum was held today. 46% say they would vote to leave. (That’s excluding people who don’t know or won’t vote.)

What should be ringing in the ears of MPs is when people were asked if they supported the government’s deal, much of which is known, people wanted to keep the deal with the European Union we already have.

With cabinet about to sign off on this deal and the wheels in motion for a meaningful Brexit vote, MPs need to listen to what the overwhelming majority of people want: a final say on Brexit. If that isn’t delivered MPs risk being punished by their voters in future if they back this bad Brexit deal.