Voters do not want a Chaos Brexit. They think it will be bad for Britain: for jobs, for the NHS, for trade, for our standing in the world: that’s the findings of new exclusive polling commissioned by HOPE not hate.
By a margin of over two to one, the British public think leaving the EU without a deal will be worse for Britain than those who believe it would be good.
Our advanced data analysis, using Multilevel Regression with Post-Stratification (MRP), shows that there is not a single constituency in the country where more people think that a Chaos Brexit would be good for the country than think it would be bad for the country.
Almost one in five people who voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum think leaving without a deal would be bad for Britain. This equates to 2,959,000 people. A further 14% of 2016 Leave voters (2,400,000 people) say they do not know whether it would be good or bad.
According to our poll, more Labour Leave voters think that leaving the EU without a deal would be bad for Britain (24%) than think it would be good (23%) for Britain.
Two thirds of Conservative Remain voters say that a Chaos Brexit would be bad – just 6% think it would be a good thing for Britain.
Voters think the Chaos Brexit price tag isn’t worth the cost. When given the Government’s economic projections that Brexit will cost the British economy at least £60bn and a hard ‘no deal’ Brexit at least £100bn, our poll finds only 10% of people think it’s worth the cost. Even among those with the most hard-line views of Brexit, just 20% think the cost of a no deal Brexit is worth it.
When framed as a choice between no deal and staying in the EU past 31 October, people opted to stay in the EU by a margin of 53% to 47%.
By large margins, Britons think that their own personal economic situation, the wider economy, the NHS, international investment, opportunities for the next generation, facing the Russian threat and dealing with international terrorism will be worse if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
There is no room for complacency or a belief that at the end of the day the British public would simply refuse a Chaos Brexit. Support for leaving the EU on 31st October without a deal is growing amongst Brexiteers and a third of the population have distrust the economic forecasts predicting a Brexit chaos.